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Federal race · Texas

U. S. Representative · District 31

Texas. Election Day was Nov. 3, 2026. Three candidates are on the official list.

Who is running

Certified by Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, as of Oct 15, 2026. Official list

Names and parties are copied exactly from the official list. Blue marks Democrats, red marks Republicans, and gray marks every other party or none; each is also labeled in words.

Official vote count

Unofficial results until certified. These are counts as published by Texas Secretary of State. Counts change as ballots are counted. Power & Politics does not call races or project winners.

U. S. REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 31, as listed by the official source
Candidate or choicePartyVotesShare of votes counted
JOHN CARTER (I)REP164,01253.8%
JUSTIN EARLYDEM136,73444.8%
GREG STOKERGRE4,2271.4%

As reported by Texas Secretary of State (the source says it was updated Nov 04, 2026 22:48:37 UTC). Rows are in the order the source lists them, which is not a ranking. Official source · All Texas results

Worth knowing

Each fact is worked out from the official records linked beside it. None is a prediction or a rating.

Past results

Share of the vote for this district, 2002 to 2024Percent of all votes counted in each regular general election. A gap means the party had no candidate or no count was published.
  • Democratic candidate
  • Republican candidate
Share of the vote for this district, 2002 to 2024Line chart with 2 series from 2002 to 2024. The same figures are in the data table below. A gap in a line means no figure.0%25%50%75%100%20102020Democratic candidate, 2002: 27.36%Democratic candidate, 2004: 32.45%Democratic candidate, 2006: 38.8%Democratic candidate, 2008: 36.58%Democratic candidate, 2012: 34.98%Democratic candidate, 2014: 31.96%Democratic candidate, 2016: 36.49%Democratic candidate, 2018: 47.68%Democratic candidate, 2020: 44.29%Democratic candidate, 2024: 35.57%Republican candidate, 2002: 69.08%Republican candidate, 2004: 64.77%Republican candidate, 2006: 58.48%Republican candidate, 2008: 60.27%Republican candidate, 2010: 82.54%Republican candidate, 2012: 61.28%Republican candidate, 2014: 64.05%Republican candidate, 2016: 58.35%Republican candidate, 2018: 50.59%Republican candidate, 2020: 53.43%Republican candidate, 2022: 100%Republican candidate, 2024: 64.43%35.6%64.4%Share of the vote for this district, 2002 to 2024Line chart with 2 series from 2002 to 2024. The same figures are in the data table below. A gap in a line means no figure.0%25%50%75%100%2005201020152020Democratic candidate, 2002: 27.36%Democratic candidate, 2004: 32.45%Democratic candidate, 2006: 38.8%Democratic candidate, 2008: 36.58%Democratic candidate, 2012: 34.98%Democratic candidate, 2014: 31.96%Democratic candidate, 2016: 36.49%Democratic candidate, 2018: 47.68%Democratic candidate, 2020: 44.29%Democratic candidate, 2024: 35.57%Republican candidate, 2002: 69.08%Republican candidate, 2004: 64.77%Republican candidate, 2006: 58.48%Republican candidate, 2008: 60.27%Republican candidate, 2010: 82.54%Republican candidate, 2012: 61.28%Republican candidate, 2014: 64.05%Republican candidate, 2016: 58.35%Republican candidate, 2018: 50.59%Republican candidate, 2020: 53.43%Republican candidate, 2022: 100%Republican candidate, 2024: 64.43%Democratic candidate 35.6%Republican candidate 64.4%

District lines are redrawn after each census and sometimes in between, so the same district number did not always cover the same ground. A break in a line means no figure was published or held for that year. It does not mean zero.

Data table: Share of the vote for this district, 2002 to 2024
Share of the vote for this district, 2002 to 2024
YearDemocratic candidateRepublican candidate
200227.36%69.08%
200432.45%64.77%
200638.8%58.48%
200836.58%60.27%
2010No figure82.54%
201234.98%61.28%
201431.96%64.05%
201636.49%58.35%
201847.68%50.59%
202044.29%53.43%
2022No figure100%
202435.57%64.43%

Source: Federal Election Commission, Federal Elections and Clerk of the House of Representatives, Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House of Representatives 1976-2024 (compiled from the Clerk of the House). As of Nov 5, 2026.

Winners and margins, 2002 to 2024
Winners and margins
YearMost votesMargin over the runner-up
2024John R. Carter (Republican)102,617 votes (28.9 points)
2022John Carter (Republican)Unopposed
2020John Carter (Republican)36,402 votes (9.1 points)
2018John Carter (Republican)8,318 votes (2.9 points)
2016John Carter (Republican)62,208 votes (21.9 points)
2014John Carter (Republican)45,892 votes (32.1 points)
2012John R. Carter (Republican)62,371 votes (26.3 points)
2010John R. Carter (Republican)99,649 votes (65.1 points)
2008John Carter (Republican)69,004 votes (23.7 points)
2006John R. Carter (Republican)30,576 votes (19.7 points)
2004John R. Carter (Republican)79,955 votes (32.3 points)
2002John R. Carter (Republican)67,373 votes (41.7 points)

See every result for this district

Map

Texas's U.S. House districts, with District 31 outlined
  • This race
  • Another district
  • No figure
Texas's U.S. House districts, with District 31 outlinedMap of the Texas congressional districts of the 119th Congress, coloured by group with a group list in the table. The same information is in the data table below.TX-1: Another districtTX-2: Another districtTX-3: Another districtTX-4: Another districtTX-5: Another districtTX-6: Another districtTX-7: Another districtTX-8: Another districtTX-9: Another districtTX-10: Another districtTX-11: Another districtTX-12: Another districtTX-13: Another districtTX-14: Another districtTX-15: Another districtTX-16: Another districtTX-17: Another districtTX-18: Another districtTX-19: Another districtTX-20: Another districtTX-21: Another districtTX-22: Another districtTX-23: Another districtTX-24: Another districtTX-25: Another districtTX-26: Another districtTX-27: Another districtTX-28: Another districtTX-29: Another districtTX-30: Another districtTX-32: Another districtTX-33: Another districtTX-34: Another districtTX-35: Another districtTX-36: Another districtTX-37: Another districtTX-38: Another districtTX-31: This race

Outlines are the Census Bureau's simplified cartographic boundaries, drawn for display, not for legal boundaries. Group names are in the table and in each district's tooltip, not only shown by colour.

Data table: Texas's U.S. House districts, with District 31 outlined
Texas's U.S. House districts, with District 31 outlined
DistrictContest
TX-1Another district
TX-2Another district
TX-3Another district
TX-4Another district
TX-5Another district
TX-6Another district
TX-7Another district
TX-8Another district
TX-9Another district
TX-10Another district
TX-11Another district
TX-12Another district
TX-13Another district
TX-14Another district
TX-15Another district
TX-16Another district
TX-17Another district
TX-18Another district
TX-19Another district
TX-20Another district
TX-21Another district
TX-22Another district
TX-23Another district
TX-24Another district
TX-25Another district
TX-26Another district
TX-27Another district
TX-28Another district
TX-29Another district
TX-30Another district
TX-31This race
TX-32Another district
TX-33Another district
TX-34Another district
TX-35Another district
TX-36Another district
TX-37Another district
TX-38Another district

Source: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic boundary file for the 119th Congress. As of the 119th Congress (2025 to 2027) boundary file.

The outlined district is the one in force for the 119th Congress. A state that redrew its map for 2026 may vote on different lines; the official list above names the contest.

Campaign money

Totals each campaign reported to the Federal Election Commission for 2025 to 2026
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handThrough
JOHN CARTER $1.5M$1.4M$159KOct 14, 2026
JUSTIN EARLY $292K$271K$21KOct 14, 2026
GREG STOKER $89K$80K$9KOct 14, 2026

Each candidate's own reports to the Federal Election Commission, through the date shown. Candidates not listed have no FEC totals tied to them on our records. Each name links to the candidate's FEC page.

Headlines that name a candidate in this race

No headline from the outlets we follow has named a candidate in this race together with Texas in the last 30 days.

Headlines are shown as each outlet published them, with a link to the outlet. A headline appears here only when it names a candidate's full name and the state, or comes from a newsroom in the state. They are the outlets' reporting, not Power & Politics findings.

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