Polls DATA

Texas U.S. Senate polls

Name: Texas U.S. Senate polls
Creator: Power & Politics

Every public poll of this race we are allowed to show, newest first, each linked to the pollster’s own release.

9 polls shown. Averages are as of Oct. 29, 2026.

Average of the polls

James Talarico D46.9%5 polls
Ken Paxton R46.3%5 polls
Ted Brown L2.9%3 polls

James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 0.6 points in the average.

Average of the latest poll from each of 5 pollsters with interviews ending Sept. 30, 2026 to Oct. 29, 2026, weighted by recency and sample size. No pollster is adjusted for lean. How averages are computed

Which polls and what weight

Poll by	Interviews ended	Sample	Share of average
Rasmussen Reports	Oct. 21, 2026	965 lv	25.3%
Emerson College Polling	Oct. 19, 2026	1,000 lv	23.3%
InsiderAdvantage	Oct. 14, 2026	1,200 lv	19.9%
Marist Poll	Oct. 11, 2026	1,196 lv	17.1%
Quantus Insights	Oct. 11, 2026	839 lv	14.4%

Polls left out of the average:

UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion, interviews ended Sept. 28, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.
Rasmussen Reports, interviews ended Sept. 23, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.
Marist Poll, interviews ended Sept. 20, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.
Emerson College Polling, interviews ended Sept. 14, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.

Average over time

James Talarico
Ken Paxton

Lines show the average as of each date, using only polls with interviews ended by then. Dots are single polls. Dates start Oct. 1, 2026.

All polls, newest first

Poll	Interviews	Sample	Results	Release
Poll by Rasmussen Reports	Oct. 20–21, 2026	965 likely votersmargin of error ±3	Ken Paxton R 45% James Talarico D 45% Ted Brown L 5%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Telephone and online
Poll by Emerson College Pollingfor Nexstar Media	Oct. 17–19, 2026Released Oct. 22, 2026	1,000 likely votersmargin of error ±3.1	James Talarico D 48% Ken Paxton R 46% Ted Brown L 1%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)MMS text-to-web, landline interactive voice response, and online panel
Poll by InsiderAdvantage	Oct. 13–14, 2026Released Oct. 15, 2026	1,200 likely votersmargin of error ±2.83	Paxton R 49% Talarico D 48%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Mixed mode: text and online panel
Poll by Quantus Insights	Oct. 9–11, 2026Released Oct. 13, 2026	839 likely votersmargin of error ±3.6Likely-voter ballot base of 839 out of 854 respondents.	Ken Paxton 47.2% James Talarico D 46.7% Ted Brown L 2.2%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Not stated in the release text
Poll by Marist Poll	Oct. 8–11, 2026Released Oct. 14, 2026	1,196 likely votersmargin of error ±4.9All 1,196 Texas registered voters interviewed; the release does not give the likely-voter subsample size.	Talarico D 47% Paxton R 45%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Multi-mode: live phone, text and online
Poll by UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion	Sept. 18–28, 2026Released Oct. 8, 2026	850 likely votersmargin of error ±4.5	James Talarico D 45% Ken Paxton R 45% Ted Brown L 2%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Online panel (fielded by YouGov)
Poll by Rasmussen Reports	Sept. 22–23, 2026	1,115 likely votersmargin of error ±3	Ken Paxton R 45% James Talarico D 46% Ted Brown L 4%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Telephone and online
Poll by Marist Poll	Sept. 17–20, 2026Released Sept. 23, 2026	1,139 registered votersmargin of error ±4.4	Talarico D 50% Paxton R 44%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Multi-mode: live phone, text and online
Poll by Emerson College Pollingfor Nexstar Media	Sept. 12–14, 2026Released Sept. 17, 2026	1,000 likely votersmargin of error ±3	James Talarico D 47% Ken Paxton R 46% Ted Brown L 2%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Text-to-web (voter file) plus online panel

Ratings from other outlets DATA

Outlet	Rating	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Toss-up	Oct. 15, 2026	Source (opens Inside Elections’s own page)
Split Ticket	Lean D	Sept. 24, 2026	Source (opens Split Ticket’s own page)

Tally: 1 Lean D, 1 Toss-up. A count of these outlets’ published ratings, not our rating.

Also rating races (we link, we do not show their ratings):

This race in the full ratings table → · Outlets and their terms

Polls measure opinion; they do not establish what government did, and a poll is not a forecast. All polls · How averages are computed · Pollsters and their terms · Texas on Power & Politics