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Polls DATA

Kansas U.S. Senate polls

Every public poll of this race we are allowed to show, newest first, each linked to the pollster’s own release.

4 polls shown. Averages are as of Nov. 2, 2026.

Average of the polls

  • Adam Hamilton D48.2%2 polls
  • Roger Marshall R46.1%2 polls

Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall by 2.1 points in the average.

Average of the latest poll from each of 2 pollsters with interviews ending Oct. 4, 2026 to Nov. 2, 2026, weighted by recency and sample size. No pollster is adjusted for lean. How averages are computed

Which polls and what weight
Poll byInterviews endedSampleShare of average
Emerson College PollingOct. 28, 2026800 lv62.0%
InsiderAdvantageOct. 14, 20261,200 lv38.0%

Polls left out of the average:

  • Emerson College Polling, interviews ended Sept. 16, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.
  • InsiderAdvantage, interviews ended Oct. 10, 2026: The same pollster has a later poll in the window.

Average over time

Kansas U.S. Senate: average over timeLine chart of the poll average from Oct. 5, 2026 to Nov. 2, 2026. Latest: Adam Hamilton 48.2; Roger Marshall 46.1. Dots are single polls.40455055Oct. 5Oct. 17Nov. 2Emerson College Polling, Oct. 28, 2026: Adam Hamilton 49%Emerson College Polling, Oct. 28, 2026: Roger Marshall 45%InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 14, 2026: Marshall 48%InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 14, 2026: Hamilton 47%InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 10, 2026: Hamilton 48%InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 10, 2026: Marshall 47%48.246.1
  • Adam Hamilton
  • Roger Marshall
Lines show the average as of each date, using only polls with interviews ended by then. Dots are single polls. Dates start Oct. 5, 2026.

All polls, newest first

PollInterviewsSampleResultsRelease
Poll by Emerson College PollingReleased Oct. 30, 2026800 likely votersmargin of error ±3.5
  • Adam Hamilton D 49%
  • Roger Marshall R 45%
  • David Graham L 3%
Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)MMS text-to-web (voter file), landline IVR, plus PureSpectrum online panel
Poll by InsiderAdvantageReleased Oct. 15, 20261,200 likely votersmargin of error ±2.83
  • Marshall R 48%
  • Hamilton D 47%
Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Mixed mode: text and online panel
Poll by InsiderAdvantageReleased Oct. 11, 20261,200 likely votersmargin of error ±2.83
  • Hamilton D 48%
  • Marshall R 47%
Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Mixed mode: text and online panel
Poll by Emerson College Pollingfor Nexstar MediaReleased Sept. 18, 2026750 likely votersmargin of error ±3.6
  • Adam Hamilton D 45%
  • Roger Marshall R 43%
  • David Graham L 4%
Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Text-to-web (voter file) plus online panel

Ratings from other outlets DATA

OutletRatingAs ofSource
Inside ElectionsToss-upSource (opens Inside Elections’s own page)
Split TicketLean RSource (opens Split Ticket’s own page)

Tally: 1 Toss-up, 1 Lean R. A count of these outlets’ published ratings, not our rating.

Also rating races (we link, we do not show their ratings):

This race in the full ratings table → · Outlets and their terms

Polls measure opinion; they do not establish what government did, and a poll is not a forecast. All polls · How averages are computed · Pollsters and their terms · Kansas on Power & Politics