Polls DATA

Iowa U.S. Senate polls

Name: Iowa U.S. Senate polls
Creator: Power & Politics

Every public poll of this race we are allowed to show, newest first, each linked to the pollster’s own release.

9 polls shown. Averages are as of Nov. 4, 2026.

Average of the polls

Ashley Hinson R46.7%4 polls
Josh Turek D45.9%4 polls
Thomas Laehn L2.8%2 polls

Ashley Hinson leads Josh Turek by 0.8 points in the average.

Average of the latest poll from each of 4 pollsters with interviews ending Oct. 6, 2026 to Nov. 4, 2026, weighted by recency and sample size. No pollster is adjusted for lean. How averages are computed

Which polls and what weight

Poll by	Interviews ended	Sample	Share of average
Rasmussen Reports	Oct. 31, 2026	901 lv	41.7%
InsiderAdvantage	Oct. 22, 2026	1,200 lv	30.8%
Marist Poll	Oct. 11, 2026	1,100 lv	17.1%
Emerson College Polling	Oct. 6, 2026	650 lv	10.3%

Polls left out of the average:

Suffolk University Political Research Center, interviews ended Oct. 4, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.
Rasmussen Reports, interviews ended Sept. 30, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.
Quantus Insights, interviews ended Sept. 29, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.
Marist Poll, interviews ended Sept. 20, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.
Emerson College Polling, interviews ended Sept. 1, 2026: Its last interview day is more than 30 days before the date of the average.

Average over time

Ashley Hinson
Josh Turek

Lines show the average as of each date, using only polls with interviews ended by then. Dots are single polls. Dates start Oct. 7, 2026.

All polls, newest first

Poll	Interviews	Sample	Results	Release
Poll by Rasmussen Reports	Oct. 27–31, 2026	901 likely votersmargin of error ±3	Ashley Hinson R 47% Josh Turek D 46% Thomas Laehn L 3% Not sure 5%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Telephone and online survey
Poll by InsiderAdvantage	Oct. 21–22, 2026Released Oct. 23, 2026	1,200 likely votersmargin of error ±2.83The release gives 1200 LV for the surveys without a separate figure for each state.	Hinson 47% Turek 45%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Mixed mode: text and online panel
Poll by Marist Poll	Oct. 8–11, 2026Released Oct. 15, 2026	1,100 likely votersmargin of error ±6.6All 1,100 Iowa registered voters interviewed; the release does not give the likely-voter subsample size.	Turek D 48% Hinson R 45%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Multi-mode: live phone, text and online
Poll by Emerson College Pollingfor Nexstar Media	Oct. 5–6, 2026Released Oct. 9, 2026	650 likely votersmargin of error ±3.8	Ashley Hinson R 47% Josh Turek D 45% Thomas Laehn L 2%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Text-to-web (voter file) plus online panel
Poll by Suffolk University Political Research Center	Oct. 1–4, 2026Released Oct. 7, 2026	500 likely votersmargin of error ±4.4	Josh Turek D 48% Ashley Hinson R 44%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Live telephone interviews
Poll by Rasmussen Reports	Sept. 28–30, 2026Released Oct. 2, 2026	1,048 likely votersmargin of error ±3	Josh Turek D 47% Ashley Hinson R 43% Thomas Laehn L 3%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Telephone and online
Poll by Quantus Insights	Sept. 28–29, 2026Released Sept. 30, 2026	714 likely votersmargin of error ±3.8Ballot analysis of 714 of 738 interviews, excluding 24 who said they would not vote.	Ashley Hinson R 47.1% Josh Turek D 45.8% Thomas Laehn L 1.7%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)SMS invitations to mobile phones
Poll by Marist Poll	Sept. 17–20, 2026Released Sept. 22, 2026	1,050 registered votersmargin of error ±4.4	Turek D 50% Hinson R 42%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Multi-mode: live phone, text and online
Poll by Emerson College Pollingfor Nexstar Media	Aug. 31–Sept. 1, 2026Released Sept. 3, 2026	750 likely votersmargin of error ±3.6	Ashley Hinson R 50% Josh Turek D 45%	Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Text-to-web (voter file) plus online panel

Ratings from other outlets DATA

Outlet	Rating	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Toss-up	Oct. 29, 2026	Source (opens Inside Elections’s own page)
Split Ticket	Tossup	Sept. 24, 2026	Source (opens Split Ticket’s own page)

Tally: 2 Toss-up. A count of these outlets’ published ratings, not our rating.

Also rating races (we link, we do not show their ratings):

This race in the full ratings table → · Outlets and their terms

Polls measure opinion; they do not establish what government did, and a poll is not a forecast. All polls · How averages are computed · Pollsters and their terms · Iowa on Power & Politics