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Polls DATA

Alaska U.S. Senate polls

Every public poll of this race we are allowed to show, newest first, each linked to the pollster’s own release.

3 polls shown. Averages are as of Oct. 26, 2026.

Average of the polls

  • Mary Peltola D46.7%3 polls
  • Dan S. Sullivan R45.2%3 polls

Mary Peltola leads Dan S. Sullivan by 1.5 points in the average.

Average of the latest poll from each of 3 pollsters with interviews ending Sept. 27, 2026 to Oct. 26, 2026, weighted by recency and sample size. No pollster is adjusted for lean. How averages are computed

Which polls and what weight
Poll byInterviews endedSampleShare of average
Rasmussen ReportsOct. 15, 2026775 lv41.1%
InsiderAdvantageOct. 10, 20261,200 lv39.9%
Quantus InsightsSept. 30, 2026737 lv19.1%

Average over time

Alaska U.S. Senate: average over timeLine chart of the poll average from Sept. 28, 2026 to Oct. 26, 2026. Latest: Mary Peltola 46.7; Dan S. Sullivan 45.2. Dots are single polls.0510152025303540455055Sept. 28Oct. 10Oct. 26Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 15, 2026: Mary Peltola 44%Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 15, 2026: Dan S. Sullivan 42%Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 15, 2026: Daniel J. Sullivan 3%InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 10, 2026: Peltola 50%InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 10, 2026: Sullivan 48%Quantus Insights, Sept. 30, 2026: Dan Sullivan 46.1%Quantus Insights, Sept. 30, 2026: Mary Peltola 45.5%46.745.2
  • Mary Peltola
  • Dan S. Sullivan
Lines show the average as of each date, using only polls with interviews ended by then. Dots are single polls. Dates start Sept. 28, 2026.

All polls, newest first

PollInterviewsSampleResultsRelease
Poll by Rasmussen ReportsReleased Oct. 19, 2026775 likely votersmargin of error ±3
  • Mary Peltola D 44%
  • Dan S. Sullivan R 42%
  • Gerald Heikes R 4%
  • Daniel J. Sullivan R 3%
Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Telephone and online
Poll by InsiderAdvantageReleased Oct. 11, 20261,200 likely votersmargin of error ±2.83
  • Peltola D 50%
  • Sullivan R 48%
Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Mixed mode: text and online panel
Poll by Quantus InsightsReleased Oct. 2, 2026737 likely votersmargin of error ±4Senate ballot asked of the 737 of 758 likely voters who said they would vote; two other candidates received a combined 2.9 percent.
  • Dan Sullivan R 46.1%
  • Mary Peltola D 45.5%
Pollster’s release (opens the pollster’s own page)Not stated in the release text

Ratings from other outlets DATA

OutletRatingAs ofSource
Inside ElectionsToss-upSource (opens Inside Elections’s own page)
Split TicketLean DSource (opens Split Ticket’s own page)

Tally: 1 Lean D, 1 Toss-up. A count of these outlets’ published ratings, not our rating.

Also rating races (we link, we do not show their ratings):

This race in the full ratings table → · Outlets and their terms

Polls measure opinion; they do not establish what government did, and a poll is not a forecast. All polls · How averages are computed · Pollsters and their terms · Alaska on Power & Politics